Projected 2021 NFL draft order: It’s Jets vs. Jaguars for the No. 1 pick


Which team will pick No. 1 overall in the 2021 NFL draft? Through 12 weeks, the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) projects the winless New York Jets with the best chance to get the top selection. The Jets took over the No. 1 spot after Week 5. The 1-10 Jacksonville Jaguars are also in the running for the pick.

Each week during the season, FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model’s ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations. The order is based on the record the model believes the teams will have after 16 games, as well as each team’s average draft position in the simulations.

Check out the full 1-32 projection for the 2021 NFL draft (updated on Dec. 3):

Average draft position: 1.3
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 68.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 99.9%


Average draft position: 1.9
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 30.8%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 99.1%


Average draft position: 4.8
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.2%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 71.4%


Average draft position: 5.5
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.2%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 67.2%


Average draft position: 6.5
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 0.2%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 42.6%


Average draft position: 7.7
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 23.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 85%


Average draft position: 9.5
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 8.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 62.9%


Average draft position: 9.5
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 11.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 61.6%


Average draft position: 9.7
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 11.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 56.6%


Average draft position: 11.5
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 22.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 62.8%


Average draft position: 11.6
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 23.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 62.8%


Average draft position: 12.1
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 15.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 60.4%


Average draft position: 12.6
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 2.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 24.6%


Average draft position: 14.1
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 16.9%


Average draft position: 14.7
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 10.5%


Average draft position: 15.5
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 8.5%


Average draft position: 17.3
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 3.3%


Average draft position: 18.8
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.4%


Average draft position: 19.0
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 2%


Average draft position: 19.8
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.5%


Average draft position: 19.8
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.1%


Average draft position: 21.6
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.1%


Average draft position: 23.2
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.1%


Average draft position: 23.9
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.1%


Average draft position: 24.5
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.1%


Average draft position: 25.2
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.1%


Average draft position: 25.6
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.1%


Average draft position: 26.2
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.1%


Average draft position: 27.1
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.1%


Average draft position: 29.3
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.1%


Average draft position: 28.6
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.1%


Average draft position: 29.7
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 0.1%



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